We are about a week away from any significant movement in the NHL. With Kovalchuk's arbitration hearing already behind us, the hockey world is just looking for "The Decision: NHL." Rumor is that ESPN will be starting a series called "The Decision." Lebron was just the tip of the iceberg. Kovalchuk's one-hour special will air at some point this week, and Brett Favre will follow it up by announcing his return in a week or two. Other rumored decisions include the purchase of the Texas Rangers, Roger Goodell's decision whether or not to have a lockout in 2011, and David Stern's decision on whether or not he will grow back his mustache. But back to the NHL. It's unlikely the league will see any significant movement before Kovalchuk has been anchored in place, whether it be on the Jersey Shore, in Hollywood, or somewhere in Siberia. Once that happens (we already thought it did once), we should see the dominoes start to fall. Kaberle will be dealt, free agents will finally be packing their bags, and any other trades or cap-casualties will fall into place. Before we are uprooted by the oncoming storm, I thought I'd try and predict how many levee's are going to fail with the storm...too soon?
Kovalchuk: There is no way that the independent arbitrator dealing with this case is going to overrule the league's decision on this. Yes, the league should have put their foot down much earlier when it came to these front-loaded contracts, but this deal was so painfully obvious that they almost couldn't let it go. Had Bettman and Co. done this a long time ago (Pronger, Zetterberg, Hossa, Savard deals) then we wouldn't even have a problem. But to have Kovalchuk's cap hit at around $6 million when he is actually going to be making $11 million is absurd. The deal, without doubt, circumvents the league's salary cap, so it's likely we will see the arbitrator uphold the league's decision. With that said, I think Kovalchuk still stays in the NHL. If the Devils are forced to shorten the deal and take a higher cap hit, then they might balk at it and focus their attention on Zach Parise's new deal. Maybe NJ takes the high cap hit to keep Kovy. If they pass, I would expect the Islanders (yes, the Islanders) or the Kings to jump all over Kovalchuk and get a deal done quickly. Once all of this is finalized, we will start to see some of the following activity:
Lee Stempniak: For a guy who had 28 goals last year, including 14 in the last 18 games in a playoff run with Phoenix, it's pretty remarkable that he's still on the market...especially when you consider he is likely going to get $3 mil a year as opposed to $5 or 6. Stempniak is an affordable two-way player with a great shot and a knack for scoring powerplay goals. My guess is that he will sign with Buffalo. The Sabres, for reasons unknown, walked away from a very good player in Tim Kennedy (despite his price tag only being $1 million for 1 season). The only reason I see for them to pass on a good player like Kennedy is if they are targeting a better option in free agency and needed that cap space. Stempniak would be a solid fit with the Sabres, and they now have the cap-space to get a deal done.
Tomas Kaberle: Kaberle has been the subject of trade rumors for years now, which makes you wonder if anything will ever get done or if this is all just fun speculation. The problem with Kaberle moving is his price tag, and I don't mean the actual dollar amount ($4 mil cap hit). The tough part to moving him is going to be Brian Burke's asking price. At last years draft, Burke tried to deal Kaberle to the Bruins for Phil Kessel. In that deal, the Bruins thought they were getting the Leafs first round pick, but there was some confusion, and Burke was demanding Kessel (a 36 goal scorer) and a first round pick for Kaberle. With an asking price like that, it's no wonder they haven't been able to move him just yet. Kaberle is one of the league's premiere puck moving defenseman, so there certainly is plenty of interest. There have been rumors that the Sharks are interested, but those don't make too much sense to me. The Sharks already have an elite puck-mover in Dan Boyle, and two rising-stars in Jason Demers and Marc-Edouard Vlasic. The Sharks are more in need of a big-hitting, stay-at-home defender these days (in the wake of Rob Blake's retirement). My guess here, is that either the Devils or Kings will make a move for Kaberle. One of those teams will lose-out on the big prize and focus their attention to the Leafs d-man. My guess is that it will be the Kings calling. If Burke were to deal with the Kings, I'm sure a package consisting of Wayne Simmonds and either Oscar Moller or Thomas Hickey would be plenty to facilitate a deal.
Marc Savard: There have been plenty of rumors that the Bruins would like to deal Savard, and it's fun for NHL geeks like myself to speculate as to where he might land or what type of package he would fetch. The big reason for the rumors is the Bruins' cap situation. For now, the B's are roughly $2.5 million over the cap, and getting rid of Savard's $4.17 cap hit would largely solve that problem. But, while it's fun to think about what could happen to Savard, the Bruins have several easier-fixes to the salary cap situation. What I'm trying to say is that Savard isn't going anywhere. First of all, why would the Bruins get rid of Savard after they just replaced Kessel? They went out and got Nathan Horton to help their scoring woes of last season, so it would hardly make any sense for the team to get rid of it's best playmaker. And even financially, there are better options. Firstly, the cap-situation won't become a real problem until mid-November, when Marco Sturm will need to be taken off long-term IR and put back on the books. So fixing the cap isn't necessarily an immediate problem. But, come November, when Sturm is back, the Bruins could simply just bury Michael Ryder's $4 mil cap hit in Providence and POOF, cap problems solved. Trading Savard at this stage just doesn't make sense...well, unless they are able to get a Kaberle or a Regehr in return. But the chances of getting either of those guys in return is slim, just as slim as the chances of Savard playing elsewhere in October.
2nd-tier Free Agents: Guys like Willie Mitchell, Bill Guerin, Paul Kariya, and Teemu Selanne are still without places to call home. Well, Selanne is going back to Anaheim if anything, but that remains to be seen. Once the Kovalchuk situation figures itself out, we'll see these guys finding homes left and right. The intriguing player here, for Bruins fans, is Guerin. There has been widespread rumors saying that there is "mutual interest" between the two sides and that things could heat up shortly. While you don't want to see the Bruins adding more sets of 40 year old legs, Guerin can still play. If they could get him at a Recchi price ($1 million), then it would be a very good way to replace Ryder, should they bury him in the minors. Guerin still has an elite wrist-shot and would be a very good leader for the B's. Here is where I see these guys landing:
Guerin - Boston
Mitchell - Washington
Kariya - Pittsburgh (to replace Guerin)
Selanne - Anaheim
Goalies: The Blackhawks made perhaps their biggest mistake of a mistake-filled offseason when they let Anti Niemi walk last week and replaced him with an aging Marty Turco. Rather than the goalie market getting thinner, the Blackhawks added the most attractive piece to it. Niemi, Jose Theodore, Andrew Raycroft, and Vesa Toskala still remain without homes. There have been plenty of rumors surrounding the first two of that group, but it's unlikely that the other two will find NHL gigs. Then you have to add the Carey Price fiasco to this. Will the Canadiens give up on Price negotiations and focus their attention on Niemi? Might they even go with both of them? If the Canadiens let Price walk after dealing playoff-hero Jaro Halak, there will be uproar in the greatest hockey city in the world. So Price is staying, whether the Habs like it or not. I don't think their cap restraints will allow them to have both him and Niemi, so Anti is gonna be heading elsewhere. My predictions:
Price - Montreal
Niemi - San Jose (no way can they possibly think Antero Niittymaki is a 60-game goalie, no way)
Theodore - Nashville
In addition to all this mess, there is a bevy of remaining RFA's (Bobby Ryan, Wayne Simmonds, Peter Mueller, Chris Stewart, James Neal, Patric Hornqvist, Marc Staal, Martin Hanzal, and Steve Downie). All of those guys are team-changers. Most, if not all, of those forwards are 1st or 2nd liners, and then Marc Staal is a #1 defenseman in the making. However, it's unlikely that too many of these guys are going to be moved. They will either resign with their current team or holdout into the season. The most likely to be traded amongst this group is probably Simmonds. The most likely to holdout into the season is either Ryan or Staal. These players hinge less on the Kovy happenings, but we should still see some activity in the next weeks regarding their new contracts.
Well, this was fun, and now we play the waiting game....(I couldn't find the Family Guy clip of Peter saying that, but maybe one of my fellow BSP bloggers will come across it).
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