Save the Ship!

Think Theo Epstein is regretting his decision to try and become the newest Billy Beane of Major League Baseball? While Beane's "Moneyball" strategy worked magic for his small-market team during the middle part of the last decade, similar steps haven't worked in Boston. Now, where small-money teams need to employ such strategies, Theo is the GM of a team that dominates one of the biggest markets in the country. Yes, this is old news. Theo tried to win with "run prevention" by signing automatic outs at the plate with the hope that they'd save a run or two a game. Well, now we are about a month and a half into the season and the Sox are a pedestrian 19-19 and sit fourth, yes, FOURTH, in the AL East. The saddest part of this first part of the season isn't the mediocre record or the low standing, it's the reason that has to truly eat away at Epstein's conscience. The Sox haven't struggled this season because of their thought-to-be anemic offense (4th in the AL in runs scored), but rather it is their defense and pitching that has killed them! The Sox have allowed 201 runs, most in the American League, thanks to spotty and inconsistent pitching and under-spectacular defensive efforts. I'm sure that when the Sox signed Adrian Beltre they were hoping for something far more than the near-paralyzed Mike Lowell could have given them on defense. So far...I'd say Beltre, defensively, has given the Sox about as much Ken Jeong could give Jenna Jameson.

So...Theo...time to put the ego aside and save the god damn ship already! Lets just optimistically assume that the pitching will right itself. Lester has already shaken his annual April-struggles and seems to be back on track toward being one of the top left-handers in baseball. Beckett has been horrid and Lackey so-so, while Dice-K showed a glimmer of hope and Buchholz has been as good as could have been expected. So, the pitching should right itself, lets not worry about that dimension just yet.

Now, where does the makeover begin? More importantly, could any acquisition help put the Sox back on level playing field with the Yankees or Rays? Well, first-off, I'm not sure any single maneuver that Theo could make right now would vault them onto the same pedestal occupied by those two teams. The Yankees, while in second place, I still see as being the class of the league. They've simply got too much hitting, a bona-fide ace, a dominant closer, and an energetic manager. The Rays, on the other hand, are far too talented and deep for the Sox to get even with by adding a single piece. Now, having said that, this isn't a "wait for next year" city. Boston sports fans expect to win now! You can't look at this situation and say that it's unfixable and that you'll wait for your system to work out the kinks in the armor. Lets face facts Theo. If Papi ain't back on the juice, he'll never return to form. Mike Cameron isn't coming back 10 years younger. Jacoby won't have found a "40-homer swing" after his rehab assignment. These struggles aren't going to be solved internally, folks. So, what is the solution here? Well, there's a few names kickin' around the rumor mill that could provide the Sox with a needed kick in the grundle in time to make a 2nd half run at the Wild Card spot.

Option A - Adrian Gonzalez, First Baseman, San Diego Padres:
This idea has been kicked around Beantown since the GM meetings in December. The Yankees were busy firing off deals for Curtis Granderson and Javier Vazquez (whoops!) and the Sox fans and Boston media needed to find an appropriate reaction for Theo. Gonzalez fit the bill. He's a young, left handed masher with Gold Glove tendencies that any organization would be able to build around. But the Sox didn't make the deal happen over the Winter and now another obstacle is in place...the Padres are contending! Yea, those Padres. They're the happy owners of the NL West lead (I know, it's early...) and have a better record than the Sox to this point. But it's not even the fact that their contending that makes this deal unlikely, it's the fact that he's a guy to build around and, for the time being, he's affordable! That works in the Padres favor in two ways. First, they can just hold onto the guy, hope to resign him, and slot him in the middle of their order for the next decade. Secondly, if they do trade him, it gives them more bargaining power in any discussion. So while Gonzalez is the closest the Sox could come to Mark Teixeira, it's a highly unlikely and expensive scenario. The Padres would likely ask in return a package consisting of Ellsbury, Buchholz or Casey Kelly, Lars Anderson, and another prospect (Tazawa? Bowden? Iglesias?) Again, in a win now type of environment, that may seem a reasonable price to pay, but given Theo's track record recently, it's unexpected.

Option B - Lance Berkman, First Baseman, Houston Astros:
The Astros are in the position many expected the Padres to be in right about now...the worst team in the National League. Not only is this team bad, but their old and loaded with albatross contracts (Berkman, Roy Oswalt, Carlos Lee to name a few). It is without doubt that Houston will try to ship some of these big contracts out of town in an effort to rebuild the system, clear out some bad contracts, and get younger. Berkman, now 34 years old, is signed through 2011 at $14.5 mil annually, so it's understandable why the Astros would like to find a taker for their five-time All Star. Although he's endured some knee troubles over the past year and a half, Berkman is still very effective at the plate. He's a high OBP type guy who hits from both sides of the plate and still possesses a fair amount of power. While he may no longer be the 40 HR masher he used to be, it's reasonable to predict that he'll enjoy a Todd Helton-like late career and remain very useful into his late-30's. Given the injuries over the past few season, his ridiculous contract, and his limited range in the field, Houston should have little to no bargaining power in trade negotiations surrounding Berkman. They'll have the option to eat his contract to get a good prospect or to get rid of that salary and obtain an OK prospect. This scenario is far more likely than any regarding Gonzalez. It's conceivable the Sox could take Berkman and only surrender a few B-prospects (Bowden, Tazawa, Josh Reddick, or Aaron Bates). And while it's easy to get excited at the possibility of having Berkman replace Papi in the daily lineup, lets not forget that the Yankees just lost Nick Johnson to wrist surgery. Wouldn't it just be fitting to see the Yankees come out of nowhere to pull this one off? It's like we're used to it by now.

Option C - Mystery Box:
Having witnessed the horror show that was the 2009-2010 Red Sox offseason, it's certainly fathomable to see the Theo and company search for "value" rather than make a big splash in the trade market. At some point, you would expect Major League executives in a massive sports-market to realize that it's not all about building through the farm system and signing cheap "fillers," but lets not set the bar too high. In fact, not only is it fathomable that they go for value deals, it's likely. I guess the law of averages says that for every value-signing that sucks there should be another value-signing that turns into the next 'Roid-era Ortiz. There are plenty of names to write on pieces of paper and toss into a hat, but which one will the Sox pull out of the bunch? Guys like Josh Willingham, Cody Ross, Conor Jackson, or Corey Hart wouldn't cost the pretty penny that a guy like Gonzalez or Berkman could demand, but they'd provide much less punch than those lineup-changers.

It's obvious that the Sox need to shake things up, even if it's only the middle of May. In Boston, it's almost career suicide to bring a guy like Lars Anderson or Casey Kelly into the fold and ask them to make season-changing contributions, so anything that will bring this team back to a competitive level is going to come via the trade market. Is it likely that the Sox will find themselves in the hunt for Options A or B? No, I certainly wouldn't use the term "likely." Sure, it's possible, but I can't see it happening. All I ask of the Sox and their front office is to make it look like they want to win; because, to date, it appears they're trying to move up in next year's draft. For all those who live and die by the Sox, keep your expectations and hopes for this team realistic (something I have failed to do for other Boston organization which shall not be named), as it'll only ease the pain of missing the playoffs.